IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Blockchain, Crypto, NFT, and Web3 2024 Predictions

IDC FutureScape Figure

• Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Blockchain, Crypto, NFT, and Web3 2024 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

• Summary of External Drivers

• Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

• Prediction 1: By 2026, 50% of Financial Institutions Will Rely on Blockchain/DLT to Verify Account and Identify Veracity in Regard to AML and/or QIB, Accredited Investor, and so Forth

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 2: By 2026, Insurers' Investments in Smart Contracts and Cryptocurrencies Will Propel Crypto-Custody and Exchange Insurance to Dominate 70% of the Global Web3 Insurance Market

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 3: By 2029, 100% of Newly Issued Securities in the United States (Equities, Debt Instruments, Derivatives, Etc.) Will Be Issued as a Digital Asset (Most Likely a Variant of NFTs)

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 4: By 2027, 20% of the Top 1000 Global Enterprise Database Will Adopt a Decentralized Design for Global Resiliency

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 5: By 2028, 90% of De Novo Data Being Utilized in Data Sets for GenAI Will Be Watermarked by Blockchain/DLT and/or Will Be Tracked Via NFTs

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 6: By 2026, Web3-Based Lending Volume Will Reach $400 Billion and Result in Net Loan Losses of Less than 0.1%

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 7: By 2025, 5% of Countries Will Have Issued Sovereign Debt Instruments Using Blockchain Technology

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 8: By 2029, Wholesale CBDCs Will Modernize Existing Wholesale Payment Systems to Boost Automation, Transparency, Sustainability, and Cross-Border Transactions, Particularly Within/Between Europe and Asia

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 9: By 2026, 15% of Countries Will Have Implemented a Verifiable Decentralized Credentialing System Using Non-Transferable Tokens Like Soulbound Tokens as the Primary Credentialing System for Citizens

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 10: By 2028, 25% of Consumer Data Gathered for Marketing Will Be Tied to a Decentralized Identity Token, Reducing Marketing and Advertising Costs While Improving Personalization

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

• AI Everywhere — Generative AI Takes the Spotlight

• The Drive to Automate — Maximizing Efficiency and New Opportunities

• Geopolitical Turbulence — Sovereignty Under Emerging Fragmentation

• Cybersecurity and Risk — Building Resilience Against Multiplying Threats

• The Digital Business Imperative — Competitiveness and Outcomes

• Shifting Tech Regulatory Landscape — Navigating Risk and Opportunity

• Operationalization of ESG — Measuring and Implementing Sustainability

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