IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Performance-Intensive Computing 2024 Predictions

IDC FutureScape Figure

• Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Performance-Intensive Computing 2024 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

• Summary of External Drivers

• Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

• Prediction 1: By 2027, the Complexity of Mathematical Computations Will Drive Businesses Toward Heterogeneous Computing for HPC or AI Based on at Least 15 Different Digital, Analog, or Quantum Computing Systems

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 2: By 2028, Businesses Will Be Able to Access at Least Three Quantum Computers That Deliver Quantum Advantage, Solving Small-Scale Yet Complex Problems 500 Times Faster than Classical Supercomputers

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 3: By 2028, Small-Scale (<100,000 Qubits) Quantum-Centric Supercomputers Will Be Available to the U.S. and EU Governments for Primarily Solving Complex Defense- and Climate-Related Problems

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 4: By 2026, 50% of Organizations Will Be Exposed to Data Breaches Because of the Lack of Investments in Post-Quantum Cryptography

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 5: By 2025, Global Sustainability Mandates Will Drive 80% of Institutions and Businesses to Use Renewable Energy Sources for All HPC and AI Deployments

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 6: By 2028, the Need for Sufficient, Affordable, Computational Power for HPC and AI Workloads Will Lead to Breakthroughs in Processing Technologies That Break the Current Monopoly of Accelerator Vendors

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 7: By 2028, Generative AI Will Displace Traditional AI and HPC Use Cases in More than 40% of the World’s Largest Supercomputers

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 8: By 2028, the Need for Data Security Will Usher in an Era of Commercial On-Premises Quantum Computing, Causing the Average Size of a Standalone Quantum Computing Deployment Size to Exceed $100 Million

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 9: By 2026, the Need for Real-Time Insights from AI and HPC Will Drive Businesses to Adopt a New Storage and Data Management Paradigm for Ultra-Low-Latency Data Access

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 10: By 2027, the Demand for Opex-Based Computational Services Will Lead to Quantum Computing, AI, and HPC Services Becoming the Largest Segment of Public Cloud–Based IaaS and PaaS Services

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

• On-Premises Deployments

• Cloud Deployments

• Quantum Computing

• IDC Recommendation

External Drivers: Detail

• AI Everywhere — Generative AI Takes the Spotlight

• The Drive to Automate — Maximizing Efficiency and New Opportunities

• Cybersecurity and Risk — Building Resilience Against Multiplying Threats

• The Digital Business Imperative — Competitiveness and Outcomes

• Everything as a Service Intensifies — Transforming Models to Drive Change

• Operationalization of ESG — Measuring and Implementing Sustainability

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• Related Research