IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Digital Lending 2023 Predictions

IDC FutureScape Figure

• Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Digital Lending 2023 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

• Summary of External Drivers

• Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

• Prediction 1: By 2026, Worldwide B2B BNPL Will Reach $500 Billion, with Fintechs and BNPL Platforms Competing with Legacy Financial Institutions to Provide SMBs with Working Capital Loans

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 2: By 2024, Alternative Data Most Closely Aligned with Unbanked and Underbanked Borrowers Will Be Used by Lenders for Credit Decisioning in 75% of All Consumer Loans

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 3: By 2024, Embedded Lending Offers for Consumer Loans Will Be Found in 25% of All Global Mobile Apps

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 4: SMB Cross-Border Financing Including Business Loans, Letters of Credit, and Factoring Will Reach $2 Trillion by 2026

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 5: By 2025, 50% of Commercial Lending Will Be Fully Digitally Underwritten and Using an Analytical Assessment of ESG Data Enabling Lenders to Make More Accurate Credit Decisions and Remain Compliant

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 6: By 2026, Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises Lending Coverage Across Industries Will Reach 70% Enabled by Artificial Intelligence of Things Technologies Utilizing Alternative Data

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 7: Digital Lending Application Fraud Will Increase 20% by 2024 Because of More Fraudulent BNPL Websites

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 8: By 2027, Greater Integration Between Existing Sources of Information of the Customer and the Onboarding Process Will Lead to 75% of Loan Applications Characterized by Automated Application Scoring

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 9: By the End of 2023, the Greater Use of Analytics and AI/ML in Collections Will Improve Collection Efficiency Rates By at Least 25%

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 10: Fueled by Mobile Buy Now, Pay Later Applications and Mobile Wallets, BNPL and Similar Installment Payment Methods Will Capture 5% of Online Purchase Transactions by 2025

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

• Digital Business — Stepping Stone to the Future Enterprise

• Everything as a Service — Thriving Through the Change

• Meaningful Intelligence — Differentiated Decision Power

• Ecosystem-Based Innovation — Driving Enterprise Value

• Cybersecurity and Risk — Scaling and Evolving Threat Environment

• Global Supply Shock — Refocusing on Multisource and Resilience

• Mainstream ESG — Sustainability Is Measured and Mandatory

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• Related Research