IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Government 2023 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: Due to Recent Economic and Geopolitical Events, by 2024, 45% of National Governments Will Consider Digital Sovereignty Critical to Protect Key National Infrastructures for Nation Survivability

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: By 2023, 65% of National Governments Will Require Compliance, with Cybersecurity Mandates Strengthening Security Requirements, Addressing Supply Chains, Streamlining Reporting, and Enforcing Sanctions

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: Led by the United States, by 2025, 40% of National Governments Will Adopt Immersive Learning Technology in Critical Sectors to Accelerate Education, Hone Skills, and Engage and Retain Employees

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: By 2024, 30% of National Governments Will Make Digital Service More Inclusive, and 20% Will Invest in Inclusivity Through Digital Services

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: 35% of National Governments Will, by 2027, Create Next-Generation Warfare Divisions to Creatively Leverage Innovation Accelerators and Crowdsourced Intelligence in Geopolitical Conflict

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: By 2026, National Governments and International Institutions Will Double Their HumTech Investments to Assist People Displaced Because of Conflict, Disasters, Famine, and Climate Change

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: By 2024, 25% of National Governments Will Focus on Compliance Frameworks and AI-Driven Content Moderation to Mitigate Rampant, Disruptive Misinformation and Address the Loss of Consensus Reality

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2025, 60% of National Governments Will Deploy Cloud Billing and Reporting Tools for Financial Accountability of the Variable Spend of Multiple Clouds

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2026, 45% of Nations Will Negotiate Digital Trade Agreements with Like-Minded Partners to Guarantee Movement of Selected Data Across International Borders

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2024, 20% of G20 Countries Will Mandate Government Executives to Justify IT Investments and Select IT Suppliers Based on ESG Value Metrics

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Storms of Disruption — Accelerating, Interconnected Uncertainty

Geopolitical Reality — Sovereignty in the Digital World

Cybersecurity and Risk — Scaling and Evolving Threat Environment

Meaningful Intelligence — Differentiated Decision Power

Embracing the Metaverse — New Levels of Immersion

Mainstream ESG — Sustainability Is Measured and Mandatory

Digital Business — Stepping Stone to the Future Enterprise

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