IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Blockchain, Crypto, NFT, and Web3 2023 Predictions

IDC FutureScape Figure

• Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Blockchain, Crypto, NFT, and Web3 2023 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

• Summary of External Drivers

• Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

• Prediction 1: By 2027, 50% of New Securities Issued Globally Will Be Issued as NFTs (or Blockchain-Based Tokens), as a Technology Channel for Private and Public Equities, Debt, and Derivatives

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 2: By 2028, Digital Trade Finance Transactions Will Make Up 30% of Total Trade Finance, If Trade Ecosystems Become Interoperable, Standardized, Technology Agnostic, and Easily Accessible to Customers

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 3: By 2026, the Global Crypto Lending Market Will Reach $5 Trillion as Cryptocurrencies Become More Widely Adopted as a Common Platform for Lenders and Borrowers

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 4: By 2025, One in Two Financial Intermediaries Will Have Adopted Distributed Ledger Technology to Support Settlement and Clearing Functions

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 5: By the End of 2025, Powered by Blockchain, Reinsurers Will Eliminate Reconciliation Pain Points, Boosting Transparency and Contract Certainty, Leading the Industry to Save Up to $10 Billion in Efficiency

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Business Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 6: By 2026, 80% of International Banks Will Incorporate Crypto Assets into Their Risk Management Decision Making and Systems

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 7: By 2026, 25% of Countries Would Have Launched a Central Bank Digital Currency

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 8: By 2026, One in Three G2000 Companies Will Commit Resources for Training Employees Related to Web3, Blockchain, and Metaverse

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 9: By 2028, the Usage of CBDCs in the Global Financial System Will Account for 10% of International Trade by Value and Will Reduce Trade Costs by 40%

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

• Prediction 10: By 2027, 20% of Global Financial Products in Use by Consumers Will Have at Least One Element of DeFi in Their Architecture

• Associated Drivers

• IT Impact

• Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

• Storms of Disruption — Accelerating, Interconnected Uncertainty

• Cybersecurity and Risk — Scaling and Evolving Threat Environment

• Economic Instability — Flurry, Snowball, or Avalanche?

• Global Supply Shock — Refocusing on Multisource and Resilience

• Digital Business — Stepping Stone to the Future Enterprise

• Ecosystem-Based Innovation — Driving Enterprise Value

• Embracing the Metaverse — New Levels of Immersion

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• Related Research